Israel is starting diplomatic efforts to get Iran expelled from the UN. Israel's ambassador to the UN, Danny Gillerman, is currently trying to summon enough support. Of course, he will fail. Only a minority of nations feel strongly enough about how completely immoral Iran's regime is to vote for Iran's expulsion from the UN. I believe Iran is trying to flex its diplomatic muscle on the world stage. The Iranian regime wants to see how far they can push, how much power and desire to destroy they can present and still not face any real action from the international community. I think Iran sees that the EU, the US, and the UN have no real courage to stand up to Iranian ambitions. Iran's nuclear program is advancing unabated, the Iranian regime is one of the top supporters of terrorist movements worldwide, and the world has yet to take any concrete steps to alter the current situation. At the current rate, Iran believes, and they have good reason, that they will acquire a nuclear arsenal, the terrorist movements they support such as Hizbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and various Al-Qaeda off-shoots will all continue to grow and strengthen, and the world will not do a single thing about it.
For the sake of the safety of the state of Israel, in which I have a personal stake, and for the sake of Westerners everywhere being able to live their lives free from fear of terrorism, Iran must be checked. Not with condemnations or toothless UN resolutions, but with concrete measures by Western nations, with the support of as many non-Western nations as possible. The following is the action plan the West should follow:
1) Pour money, training, weapons and logistical support into Iranian resistance movements who are fighting the dictatorial regime.
2) Bomb communication and military installations of the Iranian regime, including all suspected nuclear development sites.
3) Avoid sending any Western troops to Iran, aside from special forces units sent there to help train and arm the democratic resistance movements.
4) Provide advice and support in the eventual democratization of Iranian society.
If this is done soon, there will be no Iranian nuclear threat and there will be no Iranian support for terrorism. Terrorist movements lost a lot of support with the fall of the Taleban regime in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. Of course, those two areas are now in a state of flux, there are thousands dead and the situation is far from ideal. However, in a net benefit analysis, the ability of Islamic terrorists to wreack havoc worldwide has been weakened. By applying the above action plan to Iran, the goal of weakening Islamic terror will be furthered all the more. Syria will most likely start to inwardly collapse and if not, the above action plan is applicable to the Syrian regime as much as to the Iranian one.
The only real downturn of causing violent upheaveal in these radical Islamic societies is the increase in the price of oil. Energy costs are the only economic bottom line that is affected by unrest in the Middle East. Of course, energy cost increases eventually creep their way down the production chain into consumer goods and thus an overall increase in the cost of living will be created in the West as tyrannical societies transform into something resembling democracies. Or, they can transform into fractious, violent states with poor law and order and struggling institutions. Either way, aside from energy price increases, the West will not be adversly affected.
This downside can be counteracted by decreasing the dependence on oil that so plagues Western societies. Alternative sources of energy must be found, sources that can be exploited without having to rely on imports from unstable regions. Wind and solar power and hydrogen fuel cell technology are possible solutions that have already been extensively researched and have provided very money-efficient answers in many European countries and some parts of the United States. There is no reason to think that if concerted effort and resources are poured into developing alternative energy sources, that science cannot think up even more cost-efficient ways to power our advanced societies without relying on oil.
This move away from oil has to happen concurrently with the destruction of the Iranian and Syrian regimes. Eventually, the Saudi regime will fall as well, but it isn't likely that the West will be able to act in as invasive a way as in Syria and Iran because Saudi control of the oil market is much too strong as of yet. However, with alternative energy sources developing and Western purchases of oil decreasing, the Saudi regime will eventually find its hitherto bottomless pit of money become smaller and smaller.
I am a realist and I believe that if the West embarks on the path I have just described, Middle Eastern societies will find themselves in violent turmoil for a long time. But violence is quite normal as an aspect of political and societal change in societies that are in the dictatorial/feudal stage of development. Middle Eastern countries today are societally in the same place as European countries were in the 17th century. Europe was at that time still quite feudal in nature, with privileged sectors of society ruling over improverished masses. Nations and the despotic kings that reigned over them held their dominions together by taking advantage of religious strife and by striking out at their enemies on a continual, territorially aggressive basis. This is the approximate stage of development that the Middle East is in today, except that the levels of violence are not quite as extensive as they were in 17th century Europe.
I know that there are Western policy makers who concurr with my point of view, but unfortunately as of today they do not hold a solid and unassailable majority in any Western government. In Europe, if there are any policy makers and intellectuals who hold the above opinions, they are in a hopelessly small minority. I can only hope that my philosophy of conservative realism will grow in the West, because if it does not, Western civilization will face a slow but certain decline.
