Since the 1940's, when virtually the entire Jewish population was left-wing and secular, waves of aliyah and birth control patterns have completely changed the Israeli Jewish population. I just had a converstation with my teacher at the ulpan. She's been around for a while, and she says that there's no doubt that Israel has become far more religious over the decades. It used to be a socialist, secular state with religion existing on the fringes. But religious families have high birthrates, and the Mizrahim, Middle Eastern Jews who came to Israel in the 1950's and had to endure forced secularization in the school system, have been coming back to the observance level of their parents more and more. Even Ashkenzim, many of whom are avowed secularists, have been "losing" far more young people to a religious lifestyle than they have been "gaining" from the tiny number of people who become secular every year. Add to that the fact that Western aliyah is almost completely religious, and you get the current situation.

The current state of affairs is that 10% of Israeli Jews are ultra-Orthodox (hareidi in Hebrew), 21% are Modern Orthodox (dati-leumi), 40% are traditional (masorti), and 29% are secular (hiloni). It used to be that surveys would lump the last two categories together, but in the last 5-odd years the sociologists wizened up to the fact that there are several million Israeli Jews who observe enough mitzvot to qualify as more than secular. Specifically, observance of kashrut, some observance of Shabbat, periodic synagogue attendance, strong personal belief in G-d, and traditional observance of the holidays would allow someone to be classifed as masorti. The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs is a good place to look at some research, and I am sure those interested can find other sources. Just beware that online encyclopedias and general-Jewish-info sites are generally are poorly researched and hardly ever get updated. Think tanks and universities are more reliable.

As much as the secular establishment, with its control of the school system and of the media, tries to make Israelis more secular, more cosmopolitan, more American and more consumer/Hollywood obsessed, the reality is very different. Aside from Tel-Aviv and it's northern and western suburbs, everywhere else the true secularists are a minority. I wouldn't be surprised if the Soviet aliyah, which is almost entirely secular, starts to become more religious. Since they are already right-wing nationalists, it's just a natural step to send their kids to government-religious schools. In fact, I knew some families who are doing just that. These schools are completely public, but they have a lot of religious content and are run in a more traditional, old-fashioned way. This is appealing for parents who want their kids to learn and to grow up being proud of their identity. Even though only 31% of the Israeli Jews define themselves as religious, as of the 2005-2006 school year 51% of Israeli Jewish first graders are attending religious schools. This isn't just birthrate differences. A lot of Russian and Mizrahi parents are choosing to give their kids a more religion-based education.

B'sach ha'kol, in sum, secularism is receding and religion is growing.