The Felix Factor

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

I want to dedicate this post to the Tel-Aviv beach. I have been three times thus far, and will surely visit this place dozens of times this summer. It's a short 50 minutes from Jerusalem, and is basically a free vacation. White sand beach, clear aqua blue water, simply amazing. The water is cooler than in an tropical climate, but that only makes it more enjoyable. There is an unreal number of people playing makot (paddle ball), and a dozen volleyball games. There are young people, families, there's the vacation atmosphere and the clubbing atmosphere. Yes, I said clubbing. There's a section of the beach we went to last time that extends to the sea from a popular bar/cafe. The owners of this place blast music, and thus their stretch becomes very popular with young people. There are hookas being smoked all over the place, there are cafes that have tables set up right on the beach, and of course you have the water, the gorgeous water. The Tel-Aviv marina provides spectacles of hundreds of boats, catamarans other watercraft. This goes on well into October, on a daily basis, and it's literally 200 meters from downtown Tel-Aviv, including the happening trendy areas. I will re-iterate my general objection to the secular lifestyle. But, if one were to live that lifestyle, Tel-Aviv is pretty much the perfect set-up.

The Israeli economy is gearing it forward. The economy grew 5.2% in 2005, and 6.6% in the first quarter of 2006, which is great news. Netanyahu's reforms are yielding results. He cut taxes, cut spending, privatized ports, broke (some of) the monopolistic bank practices, and performed other capitalist manuevers. Competitiveness is on the rise, 200,000 people have joined the work force in the past couple of years, the unemployment is down significantly, and the average salary has gone up from 7,000 shekels to 7,680 shekels per month. Of course, all this growth has meant huge tax revenue increases for the Israeli government. Lets hope that the socialist Knesset members don't influence their more intelligent colleagues to spend the surplus. And G-d forbid if they drastically increase spending. You never know what politicians will do in order to consolidate power and buy each other off, but if they can manage to keep their hands off the economic policy and the budget for a few years, Israel will gain tremendously. The average salary should hit 8,500 shekels per month by 2008. The surplus, which will be exceptionally large by then, can be invested in education and helping those who truly can't help themselves. The government needs to ride the economic wave long enough so that investors gain long-term confidence and stop thinking of Israel as having one foot forever planted in socialism. But there are always those socialist voices determined to bring Israel down.

I guess the economy is as exciting as the beach. Maybe even more so. 7,680 shekels/month is about $1,700, which translates to $20,500 per year. Purchasing power parity however is $23,000 due to the fact that the average on all prices is lower than in the US. While this is still not the $38,000 GDP/capita enjoyed by the US, at the current rate of growth, the average purchasing power parity in Israel will hit $30,000 by 2010. If Olmert sets that as his goal, he will have done much more for Israel than by implementing ill-advised, left-wing policies in the West Bank. For those of my readers that think the disengagment plan and the current "convergence" plan are helping the economy, let me point out that Sharon didn't announce the disengagement until March of 2005, by which point the economy was already flying along for two years. People with large amounts of money to invest know a good thing when they see it, and they mainly care about fundamental economic analysis. War is, by itself, just a factor. A country can be very successful economically and simultaneously be in a constant state of war, as long as the war is controlled and the enemy isn't getting the upper hand. Complicated? Yes, but it's doable and we're doing it.

5 Comments:

  • What a great blog - can anything top the combination of beach and discussion of economic policy!

    As in many things, our prolific writer is wise well beyond his years. However, the astute readers probably noticed a small inconsistency. One cannot really compare an average annual salary (even adjusting for purchasing parity) to GDP per capita. Average salary is exactly what the name implies. GDP is gross domestic product - total value of goods and services in the economy, including imports and government.

    Regarding war and investing - investors constantly consider myriad of various risks, dynamically estimating their probabilities and comparing those to possible rewards. War, or chance of war, is just another risk to consider. As evidenced by last weekend’s announcement that Warren Buffett is paying $4 billion for 80% of Iscar , a family owned business based in north of Israel. The greatest investor in the world considered the risk and decided it was well worth taking. Iscar is Buffett’s first ever acquisition outside of the US and third largest purchase in his career, so clearly its not peanuts.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 6:26 AM  

  • In Israel's case, the average annual salary happens to be almost identical to the annual GDP per capita. But, yes I am aware that those two aren't the same thing.

    By Blogger Felix, At 4:38 AM  

  • Let me also add that I was taught my broad, yet nuanced, knowledge of economics by Warren Buffet's #1 pupil. Who also happens to be exceptionally good-looking, but that's beside the point.

    By Blogger Felix, At 4:42 AM  

  • Next time, little brother, less about the economy, and more about the beach, please...

    Len

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 6:53 AM  

  • My political currency MAY be adept in some ways, but I don't achieve the NOW with it: saying immediacy is subjective!! I'll continue with your spiel... good vibe.

    By Blogger scott abraham- lakes, At 8:09 AM  

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